The continued drop in commodity prices raised fears in the financial markets that global growth was slowing to a crawl. The result? Bond prices rose while stock prices fell.
It is clear that there is overproduction relative to demand in most commodities. This is highlighted by energy. Prices continued to decline last week. Each commodity has its own dynamic but in virtually all cases production is increasing year over year at a rate surpassing demand growth.
The key takeaway is demand and production are increasing. Major producers are finally cutting back production to levels equal to or beneath demand growth so that inventory levels stabilize or actually decline which is a prerequisite for pricing power moving forward. It will take time and patience.
Unfortunately, there is a lot of speculation in the commodity markets and continued weakness in prices initially led to margin calls and now outright liquidation. Markets typically move too far each way. Fear of a further collapse in the commodity markets has spilled over into other financial markets, creating opportunities for investors who have been patient and maintained their liquidity.
I have stated that lack of or no growth was my biggest fear. But let's put all of this in perspective: the U.S. economy is improving led by the consumer; China reported 7.0 percent growth last quarter and its stock market has rebounded of late; Greece is settled, at least for now, lifting a big cloud over Europe which will lead to renewed growth; Japan is doing fine led by exports; India is continuing to accelerate and will grow over 7 percent this year however many third world countries are suffering. The world is growing over 3.0 percent this year which may be less than in the past. Global growth should improve in 2016, too.
Don't forget that the drop in oil prices recently from $60 dollars per barrel to around $48 per barrel will boost consumer disposable income around the world and lower inflationary expectations boosting bond prices from what they otherwise would be at this point in the economic cycle. Beside the consumer, the drop in energy and other commodity prices are good for corporate margins in the aggregate but of course not for the commodity producers themselves.
By the way, we added to our energy shorts after it appeared that a deal would be reached with Iran, which we discussed in previous pieces. It was an easy call. Over 70 percent of companies reporting so far have exceeded their forecasts for the second quarter and maintained or raised numbers for the year. Not too bad.
Rather than reviewing events by region as we have done in the past, I'd like to review my core beliefs and see if there are any changes that may influence my investment policy:
1. Monetary policy remains easy virtually everywhere and the supply of funds is exceeding the demand for funds, which is favorable for financial assets. It is clear that the Fed is on hold until year-end or early 2016 at the earliest removing an immediate concern in the marketplace.
2. The dollar has remained the currency of choice, which may impede U.S. economic growth but also lowers inflationary expectations. Positive capital flows from abroad continue to reduce our interest rates from what otherwise they would be.
3. The yield curve will steepen but the degree may be less than initially thought due to the sharp drop in commodities, weakness overseas and strength in the dollar reducing inflationary expectations further.
4. A new conservatism permeates governments, corporations and individuals is clearly true. Just look at new Fed rules for the banks and at corporate cash flow reported for the second quarter so far. Hillary Clinton's tax proposals are not good for the economy, capital formation and investment but may improve the Republican's chances in the next Presidential election.
5. Profits will surprise on the upside clearly occurred with second quarter results reported so far.
6. Financial leverage and capital ratios will continue to improve. Clearly this is the case as most corporations are capping capital spending at depreciation therefore generating a lot of free cash. Banks continue to raise capital ratios and reduce leverage and risk.
7. M & A activity will remain strong. Just look in the newspapers every day to see deals of all sizes. Both the acquirer and the acquired company's stocks rise, as most deals are anti-dilutive day one.
8. Commodity prices continued to decline as producers remained slow to cut back production at levels to or beneath demand growth so inventories continued to rise and prices fell. But lower commodity prices are good for inflation, interest rates and profit margins. Not for commodity companies though.
9. Corporate managements are acting as their own activists recognizing that change is a necessity to survive and thrive in a globally competitive landscape.
10. A Greek default was contained although I doubt that Greece can live up to the terms of its new deal with the ECB. The can was kicked down the road.
11. I still doubt that the Fed can begin raising rates until 2016 and overall policy will remain easy. Future rate hikes will be small and spread out unless there are major changes in the outlook for the U.S and global economies.
12. he economic cycle will be extended with lower highs and higher lows. Still valid. There are few, if any, excesses.
13. Speculation exists today in real estate, private equity and art. Still valid.
My beliefs remain for the most part intact. I continue to be pleasantly surprised by how managements are adapting to this global competitive environment.
Management is everything to me. There is a reason why Alcoa, Dow Chemical, GE, Honeywell, Nucor, JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo are best in class. Then take a look at Facebook, Google, Apple, Starbucks, Visa to name some more. I am long 25 of the best managements in the world who have winning long-term strategies regardless of the economic environment. And that is the key to be a successful investor. Be patient and maintain ample liquidity at all times to take advantage of market moves like last week.
