During 2016, a year seemingly wholly consumed by the nation’s drawn-out presidential election, one of the lingering questions was whether U.S. voters were ready to outdo the Brits and pull off a Brexit of their own.
Many analysts scoffed at the idea. Different nation—different set of issues. Hillary Clinton’s lead in the polls is much stronger than the narrow margin that led up to the Brexit vote, they said. The U.S. voting population is too diverse to embrace Donald Trump’s brand of nationalist populism, they said. Voters view Trump as too unpredictable and impulsive, they asserted.
Then November 8 happened, and analysts, pollsters and everyone else in the prediction business had to reassess not only the election, but also themselves and their views of the world.
But, really, let’s try not to be too shocked. When we look at key moments in history since the dawn of civilization, they are mostly shocking, tumultuous events—or courses of events—ushered into the world to the tune of “that could never happen.”
Whatever the underlying forces that caused the most stunning upset in modern U.S. presidential history, they are probably not done exerting themselves. Already, Italy’s government has collapsed under the weight of populist angst. France could be next. It’s a winding path and everyone is busy trying to figure out where it will lead.
So why did Trump win? Before you try to answer, realize that historians are going to be debating the answer well beyond all our lifetimes. A better undertaking may be to try to sort out the impact of the incoming Trump administration and deciding what you can do to make the best of it. And, thankfully, the calendar worked out in a way that we’re able to start doing that in this very issue.
For example, Thomas Kostigen reports on how high-net-worth investors have been pouring assets into the clean energy sector, where the number of clean energy plants is increasing. But he also explains how Trump—who once waged a costly court battle to dismantle wind turbines off the Scottish coast because they spoiled the view from his golf resort—could enact policies that stall the sector’s momentum.
In a second feature, Carol Clouse analyzes the impact Trump could have on your clients’ taxes based on the proposals he unfurled during the campaign. His plan is still sketchy in some respects, but from what we know so far, his plan could prove beneficial to the wealthy.
It seems clear at this point that one of the initial goals of Trump and the GOP will be the eradication of the estate tax. With the Republican Party’s tight grip on Congress and the presidency, it would seem the skids are greased for that to happen, but will it? In our news section, Ian Shearn writes that some analysts have their doubts—that eliminating the so-called “death tax” may be more politically difficult than it seems.
This all just scratches the surface, of course. The number of areas that could be impacted, just in the domain of the advisory business, is enough to make you dizzy. But be assured we will be following Trump, his policies and their impact on your profession every step of the way.
We may even end up making some predictions—but please don’t come down on us too hard if we’re wrong. These are, after all, unpredictable times.
E-mail me at rfazzi@fa-mag.com with your opinion.
